Mademokrasi Atha Kulanda Tsankho La Republican M'masankho

Kodi ovota ku Republican alibe malingaliro posankha zisankho monga ma Democrat amaganizira?

M'nyuzipepala yaposachedwa, olemba (Mercier, Celniker, & Shariff, 2020) amafotokoza maphunziro atatu opatsa chidwi akuwunika zomwe a Democrats akuti Republican angavomere kuvotera ofuna kutenga nawo mbali m'magulu osiyanasiyana. Kafukufukuyu adawunikiranso malingaliro osiyanasiyana okhudzana ndi zikhulupiriro za a Democrat pazokondera za Republican komanso momwe zikhulupiriro zazinthu zina zimakhudzira zikhulupiriro za a Democrats pazosankhidwa za ofuna kusankha.

Uku sikukuwunika kwathunthu pazomwe apeza. Panali malingaliro ambiri okhudzana ndi kuyerekezera kwa demokalase kwa ofuna kulowa Democratic ochokera m'magulu osiyanasiyana omwe sindimakambirana pano. Mwachitsanzo, olembawo adayesa kusankhidwa kosavuta pakati pa ma Democrat a anthu ochokera m'magulu ena owerengeka komanso malingaliro a Democrats a Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, ndi Pete Buttigieg. Mu positi iyi, ndikufotokoza zina mwazomwe zidandisangalatsa.

Pepalalo lidasindikizidwa pa intaneti asanalembedwe munyuzipepala ndipo sanawunikiridwenso mozama za anzawo. Monga nthawi zonse, ndikulimbikitsa owerenga kuti awerenge nkhani yonse yoyambayo ndikupanga malingaliro awo pazosankhazo - ndikuwunika zotsatira zomwe sindinakambirane pano.

Zambiri za Phunziro 1 zidasonkhanitsidwa kuchokera pagulu la omwe anali nawo pa 728 (76% White, 13% Black, 7% Puerto Rico, 6% East Asia; 56% amuna, 44% akazi; azaka zapakati 35.75). Ophunzirawo adafunsidwa za kufunitsitsa kwawo kuvotera ofuna kutenga nawo mbali pazandale zosiyanasiyana ndi malingaliro awo momwe ma Democrat, Republican, ndi aku America onse angayankhire mafunso omwewo (pamlingo wa 0-100%). Panali ma Democrat 369, Republican 175, ndi Independent 167 pachitsanzo.

Monga poyambira poyerekeza kuyerekezera koyerekeza kwa omwe atenga nawo mbali, ofufuzawo adagwiritsa ntchito zomwe adafufuza kuchokera pagulu ladziko lonse la Gallup zomwe zikuwonetsa kuyerekezera kovotera gulu linalake. Deta yapadziko lonse ya Gallup idawonetsa kale kuti a Republican adati ali ofunitsitsa kuvotera magulu otsatirawa: Akatolika (97%), Achikuda (94%), achiyuda (94%), Achispanishi (92%), a evangelical (92%) , kapena mkazi (90%).

Pafupipafupi, a Democrat muzitsanzo sanayese bwino magulu ambiri. Izi zikuphatikiza kuyerekezera kwapakati pa Democrat kuti ma Republican angawonetse kufunitsitsa kuvotera munthu yemwe ndi Mkatolika (70%), Black (40%), Myuda (45%), Hispanic (37%), evangelical (76%), kapena mkazi (43%).

Zomwe dziko la Gallup lakhala likuwonetsa kale kuti a Republican anali osafunikira kuvotera magulu otsatirawa: socialist (19%), Muslim (38%), kapena osakhulupirira Mulungu (42%). Mademokrasi adasowa kwambiri awiriwa mwa atatuwa, malinga ndi kuchuluka kwa Democrat kuti a Republican angawonetse kufunitsitsa kuvotera munthu yemwe ndi Msilamu (21%) kapena sakhulupirira kuti kuli Mulungu (29%).

Chifukwa chake, ma Democrat adatsutsa kuyankha koyipa kwa ma Republican kumagulu a Akatolika, akuda, Ayuda, Hispanics, Evangelicals, ndi azimayi, ndikuwunika molakwika zakusankha kwa Republican motsutsana ndi Hispanics. Awa ndi malingaliro abodza osangalatsa a a Republican chifukwa opikisana nawo ku Spain a Marco Rubio ndi Ted Cruz anali awiri mwa omwe adatsutsa wamkulu wa GOP wa 2016.

Mademokrasi adatinso kukanidwa kwa Republican kwa munthu yemwe ndi Msilamu kapena wosakhulupirira kuti kuli Mulungu. Kuphatikiza apo, ma Democrat adawonetsa kuchuluka kwa ma Republican omwe angavomere kuvotera munthu wazaka zopitilira 70 kapena wachisosistiya. Popeza atatu omwe atenga nawo mbali pachisankho cha Democrat ndi Republican ali ndi zaka zopitilira 70 (Biden, Sanders, Trump), monga socialist, Sanders atha kutaya kwambiri potengera kusankha kwamayiko. Zowonjezera mu Phunziro 1 zidawonetsa kuti a Republican anali olondola kwambiri poneneratu kufunitsitsa kwa a Democrat kuvotera omwe akufuna kuposa omwe ma Democrat anali achipani chawo. Izi zitha kukhala chifukwa cha a Republican kukhala okhudzidwa kwambiri ndi magawano omwe ali mu Democratic Party kuposa momwe ma Democrats amathandizira.

Zambiri za Phunziro 2 zidasonkhanitsidwa mu Januware 2020 kuchokera pa zitsanzo za omwe akutenga nawo gawo pa 597 pa intaneti. Idangoyang'ana ma Democrat ndikuwonjezera mafunso okhudzana ndi kulumikizana komwe wophunzirayo ali nako ndi Republican. Kwa ine, chosangalatsa kwambiri mu Phunziro 2 chinali chakuti kulumikizana pafupipafupi komwe omwe amatenga nawo mbali mu Democrat anali ndi Republican, ndikulingalira kwawo kofunitsitsa kwa ma Republican kuti avotere munthu wina. Zotsatira izi zikuwoneka kuti zikutsimikizira kufunikira koti tituluke muzipinda zathu za echo ndikukambirana wina ndi mnzake.

Zambiri za Phunziro 3 zidasonkhanitsidwa mu February 2020 kuchokera pa zitsanzo za pa intaneti za omwe akutenga nawo gawo 930. Zinali chimodzimodzi ndi Phunziro 2, kupatula kuti linali ndi zoyeserera zoyeserera: Ophunzirawo amapatsidwa chidziwitso chotsimikizika pa kuchuluka kwenikweni kwa anthu aku America omwe akufuna kuvotera ofuna kusankha pagulu linalake kapena sanapatsidwe chidziwitso chotere. Kupatsidwa chidziwitso pamlingo woyambira kudawapangitsa ma Democrat kuwerengera kusankha kosankha wamkulu yemwe sakhulupirira kuti kuli Mulungu, Wakuda, wamkazi, wachiwerewere, waku Spain, wachiyuda, kapena Msilamu, komanso kuchepa kwa ofuna kusankha yemwe ndi Mkatolika, evangelical, Christian, socialist, kapena wazaka zoposa 70.

Mapeto

Olemba kafukufuku omwe adafufuzidwayo adachita maphunziro atatu omwe akuwonetsa momwe ma Democrat amazindikira a Republican ndikuwunikira momwe kusankhika, malingaliro pagulu, komanso malingaliro am'magulu ena atha kuthandizira kuthandizira kwamunthu wina. Ndikoyenera kuti akatswiri andale azigwiritsa ntchito sayansi yamaganizoyi kuti adziwe njira zawo. Chofunika koposa, chimapatsa ofufuza oyambira asayansi yamaganizidwe momwe malingaliro amakhudzira momwe ndale zilili pano.