Kodi Atsogoleri Amachita Bwanji Zosokoneza? Pangani Mapu Atsopano

Zamkati

• Nzeru Zakale Zakale pa Kupanga Mapu a Dziko Latsopano
• Yakwana Nthawi Yakusintha Nkhani Zathu
• Zojambulajambula monga Zopikisana

Dziko lapansi nthawi zonse ndizomveka. Koma sizimveka nthawi zonse kwa ife . Zomwe timawona zimadalira momwe timaziwonera. Chodabwitsa, mutu wanthawi zonse masiku ano mu C-suite, ndi chisonyezo chakuti malingaliro aliwonse omwe takhala tikugwiritsa ntchito kuti tiwone dziko lapansi sakutionetsanso zinthu monga zilili.

Ndipamene dziko lapansi limasiya kumvetsetsa kuti timafunikira mapu atsopano adziko lapansi, nkhani yatsopano yomwe ikuyimira zenizeni. Koma kubwera ndi imodzi, ndikupangitsa kuti igwiritsike, sikophweka. Taganizirani izi: Kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 1500, Copernicus anatiphunzitsa kuti Dziko lapansi limazungulira dzuwa — osati njira ina. Takhala ndi chidziwitso ichi kwa zaka 500. Nangano, bwanji, tikumanikirabe, kunena, malo a Valentino Pier ku Brooklyn kuti tiwonerere "kulowa kwa dzuwa"?

Chowonadi, monga momwe chithunzi chilichonse cha mphindi yomweyo chikuwonekera bwino ndi "Earthspin." Ife, osati dzuwa, tikuyenda kudutsa thambo kuti tisinthe usana kukhala usiku. Koma chowonadi chophweka ichi, chazaka mazana ambiri sichinafikebe mchilankhulo chathu. Sanalowebe m'malingaliro athu. "Kutuluka" kulikonse komanso "kulowa kwa dzuwa" kuyenera kukhala chikumbutso champhamvu kuti nkhani zathu za tsiku ndi tsiku zitha kupotoza ndikusokoneza kuthekera kwathu kuwona zinthu monga zilili.

"Mamapu" athu adziko lapansi amapezeka mchilankhulo, kapena nkhani, zomwe timagwiritsa ntchito kukhazikitsa malingaliro ndi zovuta. Mawu ndi mapu anzeru omwe timagawana tikamayenda padziko lapansi. Atsogoleri omwe atengeka ndi njira zamabizinesi achikale atha kukhala osakayikira mphamvu yamapu am'mutu, kapena nkhani, kuti apange kumvetsetsa kwathu kwamakampani, zovuta, kapena zoyambira. Koma taganizirani momwe kuchulukitsa kwa chidziwitso kwachepetsa mphamvu ya atsogoleri kuti azitha kunena za dziko lapansi, zomwe zimawakakamiza kuti azigwiritsa ntchito nkhani za anthu ena. Mwachitsanzo, titha kunena za "kusokonekera" m'makampani athu chifukwa ndiye nkhani yomwe imafotokozedwa - koma zomwe tikutanthauza tikazigwiritsa ntchito zimangokhala zachilendo kwa ife eni komanso kwa ena. Momwemonso, ndizo zomwe zimatsatira.

Kupanga mapu (kapena mapu-) kukonzanso ) ndichofunikira pakuwongolera bungwe munthawi yosintha mwachangu. Nthawi ngati imeneyi, atsogoleri amayenera kufunsa mafunso ndikusintha zomwe gulu lawo limayendetsa. Ngati satero, mamapu omwe kale amatsogolera bungwe m'malo mwake amawakola pamawonekedwe achikale. Amabisa ndi kupotoza, m'malo moulula, njira zamtsogolo.

Ngati, komabe, atsogoleri athana ndi nkhani za bungweli ndikusintha mamapu awo amisala, mabungwe awo adzakhala okonzeka kusintha limodzi ndi dziko lomwe likusintha mwachangu. Kupanga mapu koteroko kumalumikiza kuweruza ndi malingaliro a anthu pafupi kwambiri ndizowona zakunja m'njira zomwe zimabweretsa mafunso abwino ndikupanga zisankho; zimathandizira kuzindikira zolakwika zoyikidwa pakati pa bungweli ndi chilengedwe chake; itha kusintha mwamphamvu machitidwe omwe agawana.

Nzeru Zakale Zakale pa Kupanga Mapu a Dziko Latsopano

Mu nthawi zina zosintha mwachangu, kuthekera kopanga mapu atsopano (ndiye kuti, nkhani zatsopano) kudasiyanitsa iwo omwe adakwanitsa kuchita bwino ndikupanga zochitika kuchokera kwa iwo omwe adali olumala chifukwa chakusintha. Tengani za Renaissance, mphindi yofananira yosintha yoyendetsedwa ndi "kudalirana kwadziko lapansi" (maulendo opeza) ndi "digitization" (makina osindikizira a Gutenberg). Momwe anthu adawonera pakadali pano-mbiri yawo-idawongolera kusintha kwawo ndikuwatsogolera pakusintha kwawo. Tiyeni tiwone nkhani zitatu zosinthidwa zomwe zidathandizira kuzindikira nthawi yakusintha ndi kusintha.

Kuchokera pa Lathyathyathya Maps kupita ku Globes. Omanga oyamba opambana mu ufumu wa Atlantic, Spain ndi Portugal, adasiya kutengera dziko lapansi kukhala lophwanyaphwanya ndikuwongolera ngati ozungulira osati chifukwa adazindikira mwadzidzidzi kuti dziko lapansi ndi lozungulira (Europe idadziwa izi kuyambira nthawi ya Greece wakale), koma kuti apange bwino yerekezerani mafunso ofunikira abizinesi. Nyanja zakum'maŵa ndi kumadzulo kwa Europe zidatsimikiziridwa kuti zitha kuyendetsedwa, ndipo mu 1494 Pangano la Tordesillas lidatambasula mzere umodzi (kudzera komwe tsopano ndi Brazil) kugawa malo kupitirira Europe pakati pa mayiko awiriwa. Zonse zomwe zinali kummawa kwa mzerewo zinali za Portugal; madera akumadzulo anali a Spain. Koma kodi zilumba za Spice Islands (zomwe masiku ano ndi Indonesia, mbali ina ya dziko lapansi) zinali m'chigawo cha ndani? Ndipo njira iti, kum'mawa kapena kumadzulo, inali njira yachidule kwambiri yofikira kumeneko? Kuwona Dziko Lapansi ngati lozungulira kudathandizira kuyankha komanso kuyankha mafunso amenewo.

Kuchokera pa Lopatulika mpaka Kuuziridwa Luso. Zojambula zakale zinali zosalala komanso zongopeka. Cholinga chake chachikulu chinali chachipembedzo —kufotokoza nkhani yopatulika. Kunyengerera anthu anzawo kunali kofala; luso linali lopanda ulemu. Kupanga kwa malingaliro owoneka bwino (kuwonetsa kuya pazenera lathyathyathya pojambula zinthu zakutali zazing'ono), kuphatikiza chidziwitso chatsopano cha anatomy ndi sayansi yachilengedwe, kunalibe zojambula zaku Europe mpaka Brunelleschi, Michelangelo, da Vinci, ndi ena adazitsimikizira nkhani: Ntchito yajambulayo inali kutenga chidutswa cha chilengedwe cha Mulungu monga adachiwonera. Ojambula awa adatchuka chifukwa cha ntchito zomwe zimawonetsa masomphenya ochulukirapo, oyamba, komanso masomphenya adziko lapansi.

Kuchokera Kumtengo Wapamwamba kufika ku Mass Market. Johannes Gutenberg, yemwe adapanga makina osindikizira mzaka za m'ma 1450, adathetsa moyo. Chifukwa chiyani? Chifukwa chakuti mabuku anali apamwamba — othandiza ochepa, okhala ndi ochepa ngakhale pang’ono — ndipo zachuma za makina osindikizira a Gutenberg zinali zomveka pongolemba mabuku ambiri okha. Gutenberg anavutika kupeza mabuku omwe amafuna kuti azipangidwa ndi anthu ambiri. Koma popita nthawi, ukadaulo watsopanowu udathandizira kusintha malingaliro amunthu pankhani zamabuku ndi cholinga chomwe angatumikire. Pofika zaka za m'ma 1520, pamene Martin Luther adalangiza anthu onse kuti awerenge Baibulo ngati njira yosamalira miyoyo yawo, mabuku anali kukhala njira yatsopano momwe malingaliro amafikira anthu ambiri. Inde, kuyambira nthawi imeneyo Baibulo lakhala likusindikizidwa maulendo 5 biliyoni mpaka 6 biliyoni.

Yakwana Nthawi Yakusintha Nkhani Zathu

Pofuna kuyenderana ndi dziko lomwe likusintha kwambiri, azungu panthawi yakumapeto kwa nyengo adasinthiratu mamapu awo amalingaliro. Masiku ano, ambiri a ife tikufunikanso kukonzanso. Nazi zitsanzo zitatu za nkhani zakale / mamapu omwe agwiritsidwa ntchito masiku ano omwe kuwunikiranso kwawo kungalimbikitse kuthekera kwamabungwe kuti azitha kusintha ndikusintha luso lawo.

Kuchokera ku Zomangamanga mpaka Kapangidwe. Kodi zomangamanga ndi chiyani? Kwenikweni, ndi mawonekedwe omwe ali pansipa. Mawu oti "zomangamanga" mchingerezi adayambiranso zaka za m'ma 1880, mpaka kusintha kwachiwiri kwa mafakitale (ndiko kuti, kubwera kwa kupanga zinthu zambiri). Momwe mawuwa agwiritsidwira ntchito kwanthawi yayitali akuyembekeza bizinesi yomwe ingakhazikike, yokhazikika, komanso yosasunthika — zomwe zimalimbikitsa zochitika zachuma komanso zachuma zomwe zimachitika pamwamba pake. Iyo inali nkhani yolondola, kamodzi. Lingaliro linali loti omanga / opanga / opanga opanga ma misa ambiri (monga ma gridi amagetsi) adalekanitsidwa ndi ogwiritsa ntchito.

Koma izi ndizosiyana ndi tsogolo lomwe likunenedwa lero - ndi oyang'anira zamagetsi, madzi, zoyendera, ndi mafakitale ena - zamabizinesi omwe amagwiranso ntchito mkati komanso pakati pamitundu yonse yamalonda. Zowonjezereka, zomangamanga zikugwirizananso ngati nsanja, yomwe-monga nsanja zachuma zadijito-imasokoneza magawano pakati pa opanga ndi ogwiritsa ntchito, ndikuthandizira magwiritsidwe omwe sangayembekezeredwe konse ndi omwe amapanga ma netiweki. Ngati onse osankhidwa, ogula, kapena ogwira ntchito amadziwa za mafakitale omwe apatsidwa ndikuti zimakhudza "zomangamanga," ndiye kuti sakudziwa kuti ndiwothandizana nawo pakusintha kumeneku.

"Interstructure" imagwira bwino kwambiri mitundu yomwe ikubwera m'mafakitalewa. Ma grid amagetsi amagetsi amathandizira mabizinesi ndi anthu kuti apange, agulitse, komanso arbitrage magetsi ndi mibadwo yawo ndi katundu wawo wosungidwa ndi netiweki. Eni ake aufulu, kuyambira zogwiritsa ntchito madzi kupita kumakampani a njanji, atha kuloleza kuyendetsa magalimoto odziyimira pawokha ndi ma drones munjira zoyendera zapayokha zomwe sizikutsutsana ndi kuchuluka kwa anthu. Omwe ali ndi malo amtundu uliwonse, kuyambira poyimika magalimoto mpaka posungira, mpaka ku chipinda chapamwamba, athandizira kuyendetsa zinthu mwawokha pokhazikitsa malo okhala ndi malo obwezeretsanso malo.

Kuchoka Kumakina mpaka Kuganiza Kwachilengedwe. Monga a Danny Hillis akufotokozera mu Zolemba Zapangidwe ndi Sayansi , "Kuunikiridwa kwafa, khalani ndi Chidwi." M'badwo wa Kuunikiridwa unkadziwika ndi kufanana komanso kudziwikiratu. Linali dziko lomwe maubwenzi apachiwonekere anali kuwonekera, malamulo a Moore anali asanafulumizitse mayendedwe akusintha, ndipo machitidwe azachuma komanso chikhalidwe chawo anali asanalumikizane modabwitsa. Koma tsopano, chifukwa cha kupita patsogolo kwamatekinoloje komanso zasayansi komanso kuwonjezeka kwa kudalirana kwa dziko lapansi, dziko lapansi lili ndi makina akuluakulu ndi ang'onoang'ono osinthika, omwe ali otakata kwambiri. Pomwe tinkatha kugwiritsa ntchito nkhani zofananira ndi makina kuti tifotokozere dziko lapansi, tsopano tikufunikira nkhani yolimbikitsidwa ndi chilengedwe komanso machitidwe ena achilengedwe. Maganizo azamoyo si ofanana. M'malo mwake, monga a Martin Reeves ndi ena alemba, ndizosokonekera. Imayang'ana kwambiri pakuyesera m'malo moyang'anira njira kuti ipange zinazake.

Kuchokera pa automation mpaka kuwonjezera. Kafukufuku wambiri m'makampani ndi mfundo zokhudzana ndi luntha lochita kupanga komanso "tsogolo la ntchito" zimayang'ana pa zochita zokha - kubwezeretsa anthu ntchito ndi kuzindikira makina. Kafukufuku wochulukirapo amafotokoza zakusiyanasiyana kwa nkhani yomweyo: Pafupifupi theka la ntchito zonse pachuma chambiri zitha kuzimiririka pofika 2050, ngati sichoncho m'mbuyomu.

Dichotomy yowopsya ya anthu-makina imabweretsa malo akhungu angapo ndipo imanyalanyaza miyeso yofunikira, monga kufalikira kwa makina ovuta kusintha ndi maukonde omwe amadza chifukwa chakukodwa kwawo. Chofunika kwambiri, chimadumpha mwayi wopambana kwambiri wamabizinesi ndi magawo onse amtundu wa anthu: mawonekedwe am makina amunthu.

Nkhani yakukulitsa, m'malo mwazokha, imapempha atsogoleri amabizinesi, opanga mfundo, ofufuza, ndi ogwira ntchito kuti azisamalira kwambiri malowa.Makampani ndi anthu amafunika kupanga nkhani yomwe imayang'ana kuthekera kwa AI kuti isinthe kuchuluka kwa ntchito zingapo, nthawi zambiri pamadongosolo angapo ofunikira. Chitsanzo chabwino ndikusintha kwanu. Makampani omwe amagwiritsa ntchito AI ndi chidziwitso cha eni eni amatha kuchoka pamakhumi kapena mazana kupita kumagulu amakasitomala masauzande ambiri ndikuwona kuwonjezeka kwa ndalama ndi 6 mpaka 10 peresenti, kawiri kapena katatu mwachangu kuposa omwe sagwiritsa ntchito izi.

Amazon ndi chitsanzo chabwino cha AI ngati gwero lazowonjezera osati kungodzipanga zokha. Kampaniyo, m'modzi mwa ogwiritsa ntchito kwambiri AI ndi maloboti (m'malo ake okwaniritsira, maloboti adakula kuchokera ku 1,400 mu 2014 mpaka 45,000 mu 2016), opitilira ogwira nawo ntchito mzaka zitatu zapitazi ndipo akuyembekeza kuti adzalembanso 100,000 ogwira ntchito chaka chamawa (ambiri a iwo m'malo operekera zinthu).

Chowonadi ndi chakuti tikufunikira nkhani yomwe imatilimbikitsa kuti tipeze zambiri ndi zomwe zilipo (anthu) pogwiritsa ntchito AI ndi ukadaulo, osati womwe umayang'ana masewera omalizira okhalitsa ndalama zapakhomo kulikonse komwe angakhale.

Nkhani yowonjezerayi siyongokhala pazogulitsa ndi machitidwe; Zimakhudzanso ntchito ndi kasamalidwe. Monga momwe tanthauzo la kukhala dokotala lidzapangidwire ndikupeza mamiliyoni ama rekodi ndi kuphunzira pamakina, zomwe zikutanthauza kukhala manejala ndikuyendetsa bungwe zidzasintha kwambiri. Zomwe zikuchitika pakukhazikitsa zigawenga zidzafotokozedweratu ndikufulumizitsa chifukwa zisankho zimathandizidwa kwambiri ndi AI ndi chidziwitso, "chowonjezera" opanga zisankho ndikulola zida zatsopano zoyang'anira ndi mabungwe atsopano.

Zojambulajambula monga Zopikisana

Zambiri zalembedwa kale za kuchuluka kwakachuluka kwa chidziwitso ndi zidziwitso zomwe tsopano zikupezeka kwa otsogolera. Zomwe zimasoweka pazokambirana izi ndikuti vuto lalikulu silikhala ndi chidziwitso chambiri (ubongo wathu nthawi zonse umadzaza ndi zambiri kuposa momwe tingathere), koma chidziwitso chimasefukira chomwe chimachitika tikasowa njira yoyenera yopangira chigumula tanthauzo.

Kupanga mapu ndikofunikira, koma osanyalanyazidwa, gawo lazolowera kusintha kwakanthawi. Monga momwe chitsanzo ndi New York dzuwa litalowa chikusonyeza, nkhani komanso chilankhulo zitha kutisokoneza pamawonedwe achikale adziko lapansi. Tiyenera kuzindikira mamapu athu amalingaliro, ndikukonzanso zomwe zikufunikanso kukokanso, ngati tikufuna kuti dziko litithandizenso. Ndikofunikira utsogoleri wamakampani, komanso wachikhalidwe.

Ndi 73% ya ma CEO omwe akuwona kusintha kwachitukuko mwachangu ngati imodzi mwazinthu zazikuluzikulu (kuchokera pa 64% chaka chatha), ndichofunikanso kupikisana. Kupanga mapu ozindikira kumatithandiza kusintha kuti tisinthe, komanso kumayendetsa. Zaka mazana asanu kuchokera Kubadwanso Kwatsopano, timakumbukira Columbus, Michelangelo, Brunelleschi, da Vinci, ndi ena chifukwa mamapu awo adalongosola malo omwe zaka zawo zidafufuza. Ulendo wamasiku ano wotulukiranso ukuwulula dziko latsopano kwa ife. Mamapu atsopano, nkhani zatsopano, zidzatuluka ndikufotokozera momwe timazimvetsetsera. Ngati sitikuzipanga, wina ndiye.